Are YOU worried that Robots will take your Job?

With the rise in AI, amidst the cheers that hailed the new arrivals, there were few that suffered some anxious moments wondering ‘will I be out of a job?’ Finance fuels the journey of life. Disruption had a negative connotation but the perception has altered peculiarly in the parlance of information and Technology. More so in Robotics.

Image source: telegraph.co.uk

So far humans have been in the control of machines. What happens if it reverses? Automation in large-scale, like manufacturing wherein a robotic arm could effectively handle the operations of many a skilled workers and in effect replace them. Public didn’t panic then other than sympathizing with the misfortune that befell on the displaced workforce and largely embraced the change and went about their lives. If robotic arm wasn’t artificial intelligence that failed to give the jitters, why is that the, a superior and smarter robot of the present makes us feel weak and vulnerable?

Could it be the ‘thinking aloud’ of the leading lights about the advent of AI and its impact on humans affect our composure or we become too complacent by ensconcing in the comfort zone? It’s a rude jolt or a rough wake-up when a technocrat and an economist point in the same direction and almost articulate alike.  The imposing power of artificial intelligence “will eliminate a lot of existing types of jobs” by Bill Gates and former IMF Economist Rajan raising reservation about the “anxiety in middle class” because of the technology progress can be unsettling. It sure doesn’t send the shiver down the spine, though apprehensions are shared by profession about the doomsday.

What made us worry?

“Occupations most at risk including administrative, clerical and production tasks” was opined by Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane. The possibilities that Jobs from customer service to security analyst might be replaced in two decades are dictated as real by some pundits. But quoting Bill Gates, who famously quoted that the “shelf life of Intellectual Property is that of a banana”, two decades must present the timeline for you to draw and discern the postulation. Some say ‘possible and some ‘preposterous’, and it remains to be seen what will be your stand in this scenario.

Look at the possible scenarios:

Chatbots: customer service will turn out to more effective with computers answering customer calls. It could send customer call executives reeling, but some employees given the stress and at times toxic exchange and environment seems to embrace the change – even before arrival?

Some even speculate the ‘most at risk’ opportunities in employment would be

• Anyone working in telemarketing
• Anyone stitching by hand
• Maths technicians
• Watch repairers
• Insurance underwriters

And the recently introduced Betty of Milton Keynes who actually joined as ‘trainee robot manager’ engaged in a trial run for months, which can discharge several duties from monitoring personnel on work to welcoming guests.

And some statistics as well:

The author feels fear is misplaced. What happens in the breakdown of machinery? What about malfunction or virus attack? Despite numerous attempts are made to insulate from the onslaught, immunity is far cry. 

Everyone seems to be engrossed with Bots , Taco Bell announced the TacoBot, Microsoft Tay , Facebook AI Assistant “M” and the list can go on.

Are you worried?

There were instances when Robots failed and dismissed from service.  In a recent occurrence, two restaurants in China were forced to shut down due to the faltering Robots which couldn’t pour water or take orders from customers.

Another occurrence worth mentioning would be Microsoft’s Tay which malfunctioned and retired from service. Microsoft subsequently offered an apology and admitted that despite factoring many scenarios, it wasn’t prepared and made a critical oversight for this specific attack.  Microsoft Tay was pulled offline and will be featured once ready in address all possible human misuses. For now it’s not possible to predict all ‘all possible human interactive misuses without learning from mistakes’.

So we would be unduly worried to fear professional prospects robbed by robots. Even in the worst case scenario, human will upgrade themselves. The author took this survey and responded in the negative. The result depicted as under reflects that the majority negate the worry factor.

(source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11994694/Heres-what-will-happen-when-robots-take-over-the-world.html)

Deep Blue and the AI

image courtesy:https://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/exhibits/vintage/vintage_4506VV1001.html

And its not another chess game.

Way back in 1996, a super chess power named Garry Kasparov agreed for a match with IBM’s Computer [it was still ‘computer’ without the intelligence aspect amplified] named Deep Blue. Was the name an inspiration from Deep Throat?Or is just the phonetics?

The incredible then happened. Deep Blue won the first match. History was created. Unbelievable! If it stunned the world, the chess champion shattered would be an understatement. Kasparov would recollect later about playing with computers but none like Deep Blue. 

Kasparov, as the reigning champion, was so confident about his strength that the might of the machine that made its move in the chess match was no match. It wasn’t just the champion, but the pundits and public never for once doubted. No one doubted. Just the same no one expected. Computer to dethrone the champ? It happens in the time when google was probably in incubation and software was limping its way in to our lives. The impact was limited, restricted to few and used by fewer. Times when people remembered phone numbers of their contacts and reliance on ‘hardware’ like computers was confined to space, defense and research. All things around too hardly smelled anything close to ‘software’, and programs was yet to be synonymous as software just as search with google. It was in this exciting backdrop, the fight between a human brain versus a relatively unknown machine was pitted. It might sound Ayan Randish, but there is no such thing called a ‘collective brain’ and should it exist, then it will not be mortal but machines, and rightly positioned, Deep Blue was a result of many a mind with innovations and inventions. Chess is an amazing, sophisticated and brilliant game where the mind is really placed at a premium. Its philosophical too ‘you cannot reach the white square without stepping into a black’, and game is a strategic one, just like wars fought with ‘horses and bayonets’. A great tactical move or act of blunder – whichever way, that’s the game of chess.

So imagine Kasparov moving a pawn, what should Deep Blue do in response? Defense or offence? So the machine had to think of all possible scenarios and also think further about the countermove. Its about preempting and predicting to an accuracy that’s alarming, and even freaking IQ. A normal mind cannot fathom as much, and hence Kasparov was deeply respected for his intelligence and ability to look ahead – way ahead that he could do the mental math to break all barriers or detect a breach from a distance. That was baffling. Even more would be Deep Blue, for it shocked not just the millions of multitude, but Kasparov himself was baffled by the way the system battled “But a computer, I thought, would never make such a move. A computer can't ‘see’ the long-term consequences of structural changes in the position or understand how changes in pawn formations may be good or bad.”

So when he conceded, rather, Deep Blue won, Kasparov would acknowledge the brilliance and the intelligence “I GOT MY FIRST GLIMPSE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON Feb. 10, 1996, at 4:45 p.m. EST, when in the first game of my match with Deep Blue, the computer nudged a pawn forward to a square where it could easily be captured. It was a wonderful and extremely human move.”

Kasparov will go on to win the next game and eventually the championship, and we all recall  that near to impossible win of Deep Blue and cheered the challenge posed to the champion. Today the odds are reversed as we almost revere AI to the point of ubiquitous in our lives. There is no aspect in our life that AI has not penetrated. All along we lived without the knowledge of its existence. And our dependence on data is almost complete for even simple and mundane chores are reflective in our inability to store data in a machine than carry in person.

Why call it artificial? We have seen advancement exceed advancements in AI. We have seen job creation to job destruction by the very intelligence. It works both ways. Automation and robotics disrupted human lives by replacing their services and unseated their position and unsettled their lives. That’s the typical trade-off for change. Its not the cry of a luddite but all things come at a cost and technology today is the most powerful inclusion. Kasparov would state “my instincts told me “. So a celebrated chess champion still relies on his behavioral response.  Till that day, artificial will be artificial. Then again, wasn’t it a terrific wake-up call that made us stand up and salute. We owe as much to Deep Blue in enabling us to deep dive in AI.

And what the future holds…… machines might rule but will never master the creator.

Big Games and Big Data

There is a funny exchange as seen in a native movie wherein a vagabond takes shelter in a temple and manages to employ a runaway teenager to run errands for him to get ‘free’ breakfast, lunch and dinner from temples that provides food as religious offering to be consumed by worshippers after worship. Initially, the starved teenager assents and accepts to do the rounds by collecting food and shares with his ‘master’. One day, frustrated to be at the beck and call of the ‘vagabond’ who just sits and does nothing but instructs him to go to a particular outlet to collect ‘that day’s food offering’, the teenager puts his foot down and refuses to move a muscle. “Why should I have to share with you when you don’t as much lift a leg? Why can’t I just eat it all?” The vagabond smiles “son, I agree you can eat it all yourself. What about the next meal? Who will offer where? You see, that’s where my value-add comes into play. I don’t merely sit on my bottom. I alone know on which day, what time, who will offer you what? How is that?” Tapping his head, he smirks “the database is right here and that’s why I sit and you sweat. Got it?  Now get going.” 

Big Data – some insights

The power of Database is just gripping. The DBMS will become more powerful, and robust with a ‘Relational’ element as RDBMS – which is more structured mapped with parent to a child through a primary key. Now that premise is revisited to look for alternative approach to make things work even more faster in data  retrieval after all database isn’t just to store data but retrieve and re-engage. From a MySQL came out the NoSQL meaning we are back to flat file system which instead of sending a query to a database,  performs the typical request-response mechanism keeping the latency at the lowest possible [100% is utopian. Let’s get real]. So the concept of sending multiple queries to different databases concurrently to fetch the desired result in a jiffy was sheer magic, and that magic wand is Big Data. We will call its database as 'NoSQL' or Not structured and ‘Hadoop’ is the ecosystem within which the whole things exists and offers the user experience; the concept of sending multiple queries is to minimize the time taken in data retrieval  by knocking at several databases that possibly holds the data, and of course, one of the servers will surely serve given the data aggregated and returns with the sought after result – which in this parlance called as ‘MapReduce’ and the database system as HDFS – Hadoop Database File System. The hardware aspects is equally significant as processing of data produces large heat which calls for ‘Hardware Management’ and stretches the budget, but its worth every penny as your ROI is expected to scale to not just break-even. Its impact on the topline and bottom line will be tremendous as its will be customer-focused and customer-centric effort in every sense. Enough chatter about the technicalities and we will turn our attention how Big Data s aids and assists outcome.

The precursor to Big Data analytics undoubtedly is predictive analysis. The Brad Pitt starrer Moneyball, which went to become a box-office hit, employed empirical statistical analysis using to analyze the potential of a player, and also predict about performance. As they say every picture has a story behind, and now every second is snapped when you factor that in the blink of an eye the ball gets passed, thrown, kicked or creamed.

Big Data provides that window to analyze in any role one may choose - player, coach, fan, viewer, stakeholder, analyst, economist and the list goes on. We live in this digital age where there is a downpour of data that is ‘humungous’ in size and count keeps climbing.

Big Data and Sports

Remember the good old days of  Tennis, when hard heavy wooden racquets.  Bjorn Borg vs McEnroe matches at Wimbledon are truly legendary, and in fact holds the record for tie-breaker. Watch the latest play and notice the racquets are the most advanced lightweight  carbon fiber composites with powerful guts. Its more power play now. Times have changed and so has technology.

The  comments made by Cynthia Rudin, associate professor of statistics at MIT condenses the essence of Big Data and its impact in sports

“Sports are watched by millions and millions of people - yet, pretty much all of the strategic decisions are made by humans in a split second. These decisions could definitely be enhanced by learning from past data, but humans can’t keep large databases in their heads. I wanted to build predictive analytics tools to help teams make these decisions,”

“If we know, for instance, that in certain circumstances, a particular coach on the opposition team tends to make a particular decision, then we can be ready for it,”   “Another example - we can place sensors all over a car while it is in training for a race, and use the sensor data to help a driver learn how to race better.”

It couldn’t have been said better.

IPL [Indian Premier League]

Cricket in the sub-continent is big-time and cricketers are worshipped as demi-gods. That’s what fame and fortune can place – high aloft on a pedestal. But then along with its power is the Damocles sword of performance. If you fail to live up to the expectation, then it will be a nosedive – from glory to fall from grace. Where does Big data come into the frame? Talk about technology for the turnaround. From tweaking to thriving, players in this digital age with digital possessions can equip themselves by playing to the strength and working on weakness and beyond self-analysis, there is the advice of a professional who knows where it hurts and what helps . How? Data points. Every stroke you have played or every ball bowled is captured and analyzed from different perspectives. It’s a typical holistic 360 degree analysis and with 3-D technique the sky too isn’t the limit.  Predominantly primary data is always the ‘historic data’ or past data readily available and secondary data will be made up of the searched and secured ones. What if everything is under one folder that’s within reach? It provides a ring side view about your potential and helps to tap onto your advantage. The information is funneled to predict with certain degree of probability. Everyone, without any exception, goes through period of slump. In managerial economics, its boom and slump, and in stock market we call bearish and bullish. In a highly competitive environment, wherein a single ball can alter the fate , there is so much that goes into the game. Every player is an asset – and so much is at stake.

As an illustration, let’s check how India fared against Pakistan in the Cricket World Cup Matches.

1992: Ind 216/7, Pak 173/10 Result: India won by 43 Runs

1996: Ind 287/8 Pak 248/9 Result: India won by 39 Runs

1999: Ind 227/6 Pak 180/10 Result: India won by 47 Runs

2003: Pak 273/7 Ind 276/4 in 45 overs Result: India won by 6 Wickets

2011: Ind 260/9 Pak 231/10 Result: India won by 29 Runs

2015: Ind 300/7 Pak 224/10 Result: India won by 76 runs

Legend has it when Sachin Tendulkar is on a song, it can be nightmare for the bowlers and notably the 2003 World Cup, when opponent’s ace pace bowler had to give up in sheer frustration in being smashed all the way to or over the ropes. Likewise, Brian Lara on his day can be devastating. So the in-form and out-of-form batsman are closely studied to detect any loopholes that can be used to advantage. Why does the team have a mix of youth and experience combine? For raw aggression, the youth and when ‘pressure’ piles up the inexperienced tend to crumble like a cookie, which emphasize the need for  the experienced player who can keep a cool head undeterred and undisturbed. Composure counts and comes from experience. And that’s what makes it a balanced team. 

Let’s walk-through some infographics of the ongoing T-20, 2016, courtesy: the Times of India, to substantiate the substance.

It’s a snapshot of the key information required – the data on the dashboard. Complete with prediction.

EPL [English Premier League]

Who is your top goal scorer in this season? How many appearance? How many assists? What is the rate of conversion in  penalty kicks? Fouls? Suspension?

Not mere questions. There are answers available – ask your team’s analyst.

Considering a bird’s view, with data available , the analysis is again for numerous perspective : a)  as a game that usually involve player evaluation, team management, strategy and planning, competitor analysis, and  b) Business – managing a team comes with a cost. Injuries are a coach’s nightmare, more terrifying than to the player hurt and you can do the math how much will be the cost in covering the insurance. The overall expenses incurred,  check the impact on the top line, and bottom line.  Its business. 

NBA [National Basketball Association]

Should it spring any surprise that professional analytics that can break down data so granular to sift for information – forewarned is forearmed, and that’s why information is wealth. Digital Asset is too precious to be lost. Coaches do their own SWOT on every player in the team – own and opposition and strategize. Stats cite that major sports do hire their talent to tap into analysis.  97 percent of MLB teams and 80 percent of NBA teams are accompanied   by data analytics professionals.

Sports is more sophisticated today. And the power of numbers and the need for its interpretation is greater than never before, and that’s how and why the tug or pull from all sides seem to be on Big Data. Uncertainty notwithstanding, you can measure player’s performance, read patterns  and predict a possible outcome.  Big Data provides  the space to maneuver around for better planning by leveraging on the data available that will empower you to  face the odds in ‘expecting the unexpected’. Big Data helps you to make sense of the data available to chart out the action plan to enhance your preparedness. It might sound early to speculate how Big Data  will expand the shores of Artificial Intelligence, but the way the wind blows, the  supposition looks dead on.

 We look forward to meet you again in another post. Thank you for your time.